![]() People were putting sticky notes on my Mom’s door offering her cash for her house because it was across from an elementary school. I shudder to think about that absolute hysteria people were in last spring. That or running out to buy before prices were so expensive they’d never have a chance to buy again. This time last year I had to hear about how all my friends were paper millionaires. What about condo oversupply that was supposed to happen in TO? How come there is no affect seen? There’s always a greater foolĢ19 comments ↓ #1 Gaga on 03.01.18 at 5:24 pm Sellers scared.īut, fortunately, some things never change. Just one year ago delusional bankers were dishing out fivers at barely more than 2% while the Bank of Mom was giving moisters down payment loans designed to get around the newbie stress test in place at that time. Thus, buyers re-applying for loans in April will have to qualify at the whiz-bang level of 5.14% – which may actually be 5.4% by then. Not only will this inflate manufacturing and construction costs in the States, but it kicks the poop out of the Canadian industry with an immediate impact on places like Hamilton and the Sault.Īnd when March expires in thirty days, so will a lot of mortgage pre-approvals that were granted near the end of 2017 before the B20 stress test came into effect. The guy is out of control with a 25% duty being slapped on shipments into the US. Our CB will follow eventually and in the meantime the debt market will goose mortgage costs. Market is now factoring in four increases, which has bond yields bulging and equities falling. The new Fed boss has made that abundantly clear this week, and Mr. Stock markets tanked again Thursday for two reasons that impact Canadian residential real estate. But overall, spring 2018 will bear absolutely no resemblance to last year’s rutting season, and the people who bought then no longer wish to discuss it. In other places, not far away, the buyers will be relentlessly in control. Some places will see no decline in values and continued competition for good listings. Having said that, all real estate is local. If you need a home, can afford it without Hoovering your net worth, plan to stay there a long time and won’t freak when the price plops, go ahead and buy. In short, real estate as an investment asset class is in a spiral. Boring and provincial as usual, little price change and no reason whatsoever for appreciation. Regina, Saskatoon and the other flat places – meh. Nova Scotia prices have picked up in the last year as more Upper Canadian refugees discover the place (still cheap, with lobsters). Montreal is doing okay, as is most of southern Ontario – but with lagging sales year/year. (Sales in Victoria, by the way, crashed 19.25% in February to merely 545.) In Calgary sales last month dropped by almost 20% over last year, while prices are down a little and listings are rising. In BC, Victoria, Kelowna and the nether regions are now no-go zones as the new spec tax scares off foreign dudes and Canadians with second properties. Let’s see what February looks like in official stats, but also try to figure out what comes next. Soon we’ll be sending UN relief workers into York Region. He confirms there is mucho wailing, gnashing and crashing going on in the northern burbs. Even condos sales are being clobbered – down by about a third – while detached sales have crashed closer to 40%. Values haven’t changed a lot from January, but energy is sure being sucked out of the marketplace. He figures prices overall have plunged 12% from last year – with the non-condo part of the market taking a 17% hit. Toronto broker and number-cruncher John Pasalis is sure tweeting up a doomstorm this week. Caledon is up, so the hipsters and horses are okay. There are double-digit drops also in Mattamyville (Milton), Oakville and Pickering, while Mississauga and Ajax have shed close to 10%. Markham, Stoufville, Bradford, Georgina, Richmond Hill, Vaughan, Unionville – quel mess! – all with 20% or more declines in appraised values or sale prices. Did any of them ever expect these price hits? Has the B20 stress test started to hose down the house-horny moisters yet? Have rising mortgage rates curtailed overall credit? Or has an unusual lack of spring supply fed competition for available listings, keeping prices aloft? And how about the giant discrepancy growing between urban and suburban markets – across the GTA and the LM?Īs far as Toronto goes – if you believe Zolo – we have an unfolding disaster for people who bought in the last year. #FLATOUT ULTIMATE CARNAGE ENB PLUS#Expect sales declines plus that yawning divide to continue between detacheds and condos – which is seriously masking overall trends. Realtors in Van and the Big Smoke are set to release February numbers. ![]()
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